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StradionQuantitative Market Terminal
Scored out of sample.
quantitative market terminal
stradion.com

Stradion publishes probabilistic forecasts for a public set of large-caps — directional probabilities, expected returns, and 90% intervals — and scores each one out of sample as its horizon matures. Hit rate and interval coverage are published per model and horizon, including the periods where the models do poorly.

What it is

A market terminal organized into signal matrices: a fixed set of symbols, the models that forecast them, and the live record of how those forecasts scored. The flagship public matrix covers ten large-caps — eight US and two Swedish (Ericsson, Volvo) — and is open to everyone — free, no account.

For each symbol and horizon, Stradion publishes the directional call, a calibrated probability of a positive return, an expected return, and a 90% uncertainty band. No price targets, and no redistributed market data.

Scoring

  • Out of sample. A walk-forward replay: each call uses only what was knowable at the time, scored after the fact.
  • Published in full. Hit rate and 90% coverage are published per model and horizon, including the windows where the numbers are weak.
  • Exportable. The full scored record exports as CSV — every call, predicted vs realized, the misses included — for independent verification. No account.

Evidence

Calibrated
A 62% P(up) should rise about 62% of the time; coverage is published so the property can be checked.
Stated limits
Short-horizon confidence is not yet tradable; it begins to rank outcomes near 20 days. This is published.
Returns only
Percentage outputs and scores, not prices or OHLCV. Licensing-safe by construction.

What's open

The signal matrix, the daily news briefs, the Arena (strategy/model/agent books scored against the market), and the full out-of-sample track record are open and anonymous — free examples of what the platform does. The full Oikos research terminal — screener, fundamentals, options and positioning flow, shared watchlists — is by invitation; it's where any future member features will live.

Why it exists

Stradion began as a private tool: the terminal its author wanted for his own market work, held to the standard he would have paid for. It was built for personal use, not for a buyer, which is why the methodology and the limitations are documented in full.

oikos.stradion.com · stradion.com/methodology.html Research only. Not investment advice. Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs and may be wrong; backtests and scored history do not guarantee future results.