Stradion
A terminal that keeps its own scorecard

Forecasts you can actually check.

Stradion publishes the odds of an up move, the expected return, and a 90% range for a public set of large-caps — then grades every call once the window closes, against only the data available at the time. The scorecard is live, misses included. Free, and no account needed.

forecasts scored out of sample · updated daily
Track record · out of sample live
Directional hit rate
90% interval coverage
Forecasts scored
Latest call we missed
Scored walk-forward, against only the data available at the time — including the windows with no edge. See the full record →

Everything Stradion gives you

free unless noted

One place for the odds, the news, and the receipts. Start anywhere — nothing here asks for a login.

Signal matrix

Free

For every symbol and horizon: the probability of a positive return, the expected return, and a 90% range — with the model and data-date on each row. Percentages only; no redistributed prices.

Open Signals →

Daily news brief

Free

A plain-language read on each watch list every morning, with a stance and price-behaviour note per symbol. Subscribe by RSS — no account.

Read the brief →

Track record

Free

Every matured call, scored. Hit rate and coverage per model and horizon — and “where we were wrong”, ranked. Export the full record as CSV.

See the record →

Oikos terminal

By invitation

The full research desk behind the public surfaces: screener, model scorecards, insider/options/sentiment signals, and shared watchlists.

Request access →

Custom & paid lists

Coming

Your own symbols, a stronger model, Stradion's own forecast woven into the brief. A capability link, not a login. Tell us what you'd want.

Register interest →

Exportable history

Coming

Every published forecast, the feature snapshot behind it, and how it scored — kept and exportable in full for paying members.

Register interest →

See it before you click

the public surfaces

The doorway is warm; the rooms are dense. Here's what you'll actually open.

https://signals.stradion.comlive
The Stradion Signals matrix: per-symbol probability of an up move, expected return, and 90% range across horizons.

Signals

The signal matrix, with each model's out-of-sample accuracy on every row.

https://news.stradion.comlive
The Stradion News landing: watch lists with daily briefs and per-symbol stance.

News

Daily briefs per watch list, summarized from public headlines. Subscribe by RSS.

https://oikos.stradion.comby invitation
The Oikos research terminal, shown blurred behind an access gate.

Oikos

The research terminal: screener, model scorecards, and signal dashboard.

How we stay honest

out of sample, published in full

Every forecast is scored out of sample.

Graded after its horizon elapses, against only the data available at the time.

walk-forward OOS

Each forecast is graded after its window closes, on the data the model could have used at the time — a walk-forward, out-of-sample replay that includes the stretches where the models do poorly. Our own analysis finds short-horizon directional confidence doesn't yet rank outcomes well enough to trade on; it begins to separate around the 20-day horizon, and that result is stated on the record. A model that is right 57% of the time is wrong the other 43%, and the published numbers reflect it.

Out of sample

The record is a replay, not a fit: every call is graded only after its window closes, on the data the model already had.

Published in full

Hit rate and 90% coverage are shown for every model and horizon, including the windows where no edge has appeared.

Yours to keep

Every published forecast is retained. Paying members can export the complete history: the calls, the feature snapshot behind each, and how it scored.

Why this exists

a note

Stradion began as a private tool. I built the terminal I wanted for my own market work and held it to a standard I'd have paid for: forecasts I could audit, uncertainty kept in the outputs, and a record I couldn't quietly edit. What's public here is that same tool — the methodology and the limitations included, because that's how I use it.

What's next

public now · broader later

The roadmap

The public matrix and brief stay free while the record builds.

  • Signal-change alerts and watchlist routing
  • Additional matrices, each with its own symbols, models, and scored record
  • Wider access to the Oikos research terminal
  • Programmatic access to the model outputs

For paying members

Planned — pricing isn't set yet.

Export the full history, run a paid list, or bring your own symbols. If that's useful to you, say so — it shapes what gets built first.