A market terminal that keeps its own scorecard.
Stradion publishes probabilistic forecasts for a public set of large-caps — direction, calibrated odds, and 90% ranges — then scores every one out of sample as its horizon matures. The record, misses included, is on the page. Built to be audited, not believed.
Public signal matrix
Open to everyone, free and anonymous — one of several matrices, each with its own symbols, models, and scored performance. Signal outputs only, not redistributed OHLCV.
| Symbol | Surface | Status |
|---|---|---|
| AAPL | forecast matrix + brief | daily |
| NVDA | forecast matrix + brief | daily |
| JPM | forecast matrix + brief | daily |
| XOM | forecast matrix + brief | daily |
| +4 | UNH, WMT, KO, CAT | public |
How we stay honest
the promiseWe publish our scorecard — misses included.
Every forecast is scored out of sample as its horizon matures, and the result is shown whether it flatters us or not.
Each forecast is scored only after its horizon elapses, and only against data the model could have known at the time — a walk-forward, out-of-sample replay with no hindsight and no cherry-picking. We publish directional hit-rate and 90%-interval coverage per model and horizon, and we show the uncomfortable parts: where short-horizon confidence does not yet rank outcomes well enough to trade on, we say so on the page rather than bury it. A model that is right 55% of the time is still wrong 45% of the time — we would rather you see that than be sold certainty.
Out of sample
No hindsight.
Each call is scored after the fact, against only what was knowable at the time. The track record is a replay, not a fit.
Published, not curated
The whole record.
Hit-rate and 90% coverage are shown for every model and horizon — including the windows where the edge has not yet shown up.
Yours to keep
Full history, exportable.
Every forecast we have published is retained. Paying members can export the entire history — the calls, the feature snapshot behind them, and how each one scored.
Why this exists
a noteStradion began as a private tool. Instead of designing for a hypothetical customer or chasing monetization on day one, I built the terminal I wanted for my own market work — and held it to the standard I would have paid for: forecasts I could audit, uncertainty left in, and a record I could not quietly edit. What is public here is that same tool, opened up. The honesty is not a posture; it is what the thing was built for.
Surfaces
public now · broader laterSignals
Forecasts, confidence, ranges, and scored accuracy.
- model_id and horizon exposed
- Return probabilities, not price redistribution
- Live hit rate and 90% coverage tracking
- Public matrix now — more matrices planned
News
Daily public-headline brief for the tracked symbols.
- Source-linked summaries
- Stance and price-behavior notes
- Research-only disclosure trail
What's next
The public matrix and brief stay free while the record builds.
Planned, in rough order: signal-change alerts and watchlist routing; additional matrices, each with its own scored record; the full Oikos research terminal; and programmatic access to the calibrated outputs. Pricing comes later — the record has to earn it.